The centuries-old tradition of betting on the papal elections was in full swing on day 1 from the conclave on Wednesday.
While the black smoke appeared from the Sistine Chapel in the early evening of Rome, which shows that the first round of voting failed to settle down to a new pope, one of the 133 cardinals who were convened in the Vatican may soon appear as the next Pantif.
However, betting markets around the world have narrowed the field to two favorites.
Pietro Parolin, a 70-year-old Italian, who has been the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, is the favorite at Polymarket, Kalshi and foreign bookmakers.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the favorite to be the next pontiff. The Italian, described as Francis’ Deputy Pope, is considered moderate in the Catholic Church. / Getty images
Approaching a second, is Luis Antonio Gokim Tale, 67-year-old Filipino, known as the Asian Francis because of his similar commitments to social justice.
Kalshi, a New York -based prediction market, gave Parolin a 26 percent chance of winning Monday afternoon, followed by Tagle at 22 percent. Following is the Italian Matteo ZPI, 10 percent; Italian Pizzabala Pizzaballa, by nine percent; and Hungarian Peter Erd, at eight percent. American Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke received a percentage of a chance to become a pope from Kalshi.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tale of the Philippines expressed commitments to social justice. He is considered a liberal, who shares similar views with his predecessor, Pope Francis. / Anadolu / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Polymarket, which erupted in popularity during the 2024 presidential election, to design Donald Trump’s comfortable victory while the polls placed the race like neck and neck, had the same four. However, this gave the fifth highest chance for Ghanai Peter Turkson.
Kalshi and Polymarket have accepted approximately $ 30 million bets on who will be the next Pontiff.
PolyMarket launched its NEXT POPE market in February, more than two months before Pope Francis died on April 85 on April 21. The market is mainly stable with Parolin as a favorite, but it had Tagle and Pizzaballa, leading for short periods.
Luis Antonio Tale and Pierbattista Pizzaballa have been briefly preferred for Polymarket, but the last three months have largely seen Pietro Parolin in an early role. / Polymarket
Parolin was described as a “deputy pope” in its role under Francis and is considered a moderate choice. Tagle is considered a liberal, like Francis and would be the first Asian pope of the modern era if it became the next Pontiff. 69 -year -old ZUPI is regarded as a liberal, while Pizzaballa, 60, is considered a conservative who has some progressive views.
Betting the papal elections went back to 1503, during the early Renaissance. Although betting methods have evolved, it remains among the most difficult elections to forecast thanks to its secret nature and the number of potential winners (PolyMarket has accepted bets on 20 different cardinals).
Harry Crane, Professor of Statistics at the University of Rutgers, who studies elections and markets for betting, told USA Today that the papal forecasts are largely avoided by professional gamblers because of how tightly the cardinals are tightly as a result of the death of the Pantif.
The Cardinals enter the Basilica of St. Peter on 1 day on a conclave. There are 133 cardinals that could be outlined as the next pontiff. / Vatican Pool / Francesco Sforza / Vatican Media via Getty Images
However, Crane reminded that prediction markets can take significant steps based on limited information. He recalled how prediction markets were moving dramatically last summer regarding whether Biden would withdraw from the presidential race.
“We have seen that these chances change quite drastically based on very little information about what Nancy Pelosi may or may not have said,” Crane said, recalling major market changes during the 2024 presidential election.
Vatican viewers are quickly reminiscent of those who are experiencing their first papal elections that they are often determined by their unpredictability. As the old saying goes, whoever enters the conclave while Pope exits the cardinal.