Labor has fallen a long way from their victory with a landslide last summer.
The covenant of how serious the challenge of the reform was, they kept the lead of the intention to vote throughout February. Both major parties have not been made for more than 100 years.
Can the reform win the next election?
By law, the next general election must be held in the latest by 21 August 2029. The way forward is long and everything is obliged to change.
Will he find his foot your foot? Will the conservatives bounce from the worst defeat in their history? Will the inertia of the reform last for five years and, if so, can Nigel Farage win enough places to become the next Prime Minister?
How did we get the data?
To answer these questions, the telegraph has compiled polls from a number of surveys approved by the British Election Board.
These are transparent, reliable and respected bodies such as Yougov, Opinium and Redfield and Wilton.
The result of each study, published by July 2024, is weighted by how well the surveyed surveyed last time, with the results taken from the UK election elections and the size of the sample. The trend shown is the result of local regression.
How is the support for the sides collapsed
In the days after the last election, Yougov pulled out more than 35,000 voters to see how the support varied in different bases.
On the day of the election, right-wing women turned out to be more unique than men to face rebellious reform over the Tory. The most polls show that women voters are increasingly won.
The dividing lines are also blurred: the support for reform has grown in all demographic groups, but the jump is strongest among the young.
Support for conservatives remains healthy with retirees, but Farage’s adhesion is tightened in this age group as well. In the meantime, work has collapsed with all generations.
We know exactly how many ballots have been presented for national and regional parties in all corners of the United Kingdom.
The share of labor has decreased throughout the country. Recent polls show reform in the lead in Midlands and south outside London.
Plaid Cymru and SNP also enjoyed some success in extracting the capital of the declining wealth of the ruling party in Wales and Scotland.
How well does Starmer do as PM?
The Prime Minister’s copper month was very short-lived. Last July, he was a neutral figure in the eyes of the public – as many people reported that they look it favorably as unfavorable – which made him one of the most popular party leaders at the time.
But that soon changed. Until October, he was more negatively perceived by the notorious Nigel Farak.
How many places could win election reform?
The system for the first time of the post has long led to an imbalance between the national share of votes and the number of seats in the municipalities. 2024 were the most distorted elections in history when it comes to comparing the share of votes and places won.
The prediction of the winner from 650 competitions at the constituency level is not an easy feat. Studies in recent years have undertaken to conduct what are known as MRP-residents of “multi-stage regression and after stratification”.
They combine mega promotion, usually with the sample size over 10,000, with a number of characteristic data on the local population, from gender and age to the level of education and the history of voting.
How accurate are polls?
Each poll comes with a measure of uncertainty. Although all polls seek to question a representative sample and to draw the results to reflect the composition of the wider side, the error limit is inevitable.
In practice, the true position of a particular poll is likely to fall within 2 points of the number cited.
Each anchor also has an ordered approach to establish a vote intention. The exact formulation of the questions can vary, as well as the way in which the answers “I don’t know” are processed.
Studies have shown that the summary of the Poll Survey helps to mitigate the potential bias arising from individual surveys.