For the fourth consecutive year, the Atlantic Pool is ready to enter the hurricane season without any, called a tropical system, to form before the official start date on June 1st.
The last time the forecasts tracked a storm in the pool before the annual start date was in 2021 when a system developed in late May.
Since then, all the first formations mentioned have occurred in June, with more compliance with the climatological average.
Without tropical cyclones, which are currently on the horizon, this marks a noticeable shift from models of pre -season storm activity.
Stretching the activity at the beginning of the season from time to time caused discussions about moving the official start date of the hurricane season until earlier in May.
The idea at first glance has gained adhesion after a seven -year section in which storms are consistently formed before June 1, but in recent years such discussions have lost speed as the pre -season activity decreases.
The present silence in the early season is not unprecedented – a similar section happened between 1994 and 2002, when the violent activity was largely waiting after the official start of the season to form.
Atlantic pool satellite from 25.02.2025
2025 prognosis for the hurricane season in the Atlantic Atlantic Hurricane: This is how active it can be this year without El Nino, La Nina Patterns
The combination of seasons 2024 and 2025 is also celebrated for the first time in more than a decade that the National Hurricane Center did not observe any classified tropical characteristics before June 1.
However, inaction, meteorologists warn that the quiet start of the season does not show what is ahead.
A more telling indicator is whether the tropical storm is formed around June 20 – the middle date of the first called the Atlantic Storm.
If no system is formed around this critical indicator, then the attention is shifted to how long the first storm will take the first storm after June 20.
The first name on the 2025 list is Andrea, which is again not expected to be formed before June 1st.
The last time the first storm was formed on the season on or after June 20 was in 2014, when Arthur was baptized on July 1.
The year ended relatively inactive, with only eight names, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes – far below the seasonal average.
However, the slow start does not necessarily mean that the season will be quiet or without significant effects.
In 2005, the first named storm was formed only on June 10, but the season continued to produce 28 storm names, 15 hurricanes with seven large hurricanes and included monsters such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Hurricane season 2025: Here are the storm names you will see this season
Statistical seasons, which start without a storm in June, tend to be less active.
The average seasons with late start, without tropical activity in June or early July, produce only about nine called storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
A key cause, beyond the simple time that is not favorable to formations, is the shortened period of activity.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season covers 183 days, from June 1 to November 30, but the loss of all a month to the inaction effectively eliminates over 16% of the duration of the season -the time that cannot be restored later, since water temperatures usually become less cool and atmospheric.
While the lack of pre -season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic may seem unusual compared to the last two decades, it is not unprecedented.
Forecasters emphasize that preparation is key and, no matter how the season begins, only one fall system is needed to cause a significant impact.
The official season of hurricanes for the Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to November 30. As can be seen from the graphic, the peak of the season is September 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur at any time in the hurricane season.
Original article source: The model appeared in the tropics for the first time in more than 20 years