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The world is accumulated in the forecasts of when the singularity will appear or when the artificial general intelligence (AGI) will arrive. SSOME experts predict that this will never happen while others mark their calendars for 2026.
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A new macro analysis of studies over the last 15 years shows when scientists and experts in the industry refer to the question and how their forecasts have changed over time, especially after the arrival of large language models such as Chatgpt.
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Although forecasts vary for a period of almost half a century, most agree than AGI will arrive before the end of 21Holy Century.
After the arrival of the large language models (LLMS), who have now penetrated at first glance every corner of our digital life, scientists, experts, leaders of the industry and almost everyone else has an opinion about AI and where it is directed. Some researchers who have studied the emergence of machine intelligence believe that singularity – the theoretical point in which the machine surpasses the person in intelligence – may occur within decades. At the other end of the forecast spectrum, there is an CEO of Anthropic, who thinks we are right on the threshold – give About 12 months old or soS
A new analysis, reviewing “8,590 scientists, leading entrepreneurs and community forecasts,” is trying to make sense of all the confusing forecasts of AI that exist today and traces the changes in these predictions over time. This macro study was conducted by a research team called Aimultiple, which evaluates new technologies using stable data analysis techniques. Although this study examines various AI thresholds (such as artificial general intelligence (AGI) and AI Superintelligence), the leaders of the AI industry were generally more bits in their predictions. However, most respondents believe that AGI is likely to appear within the next half century.
However, this timeline for arriving both AGI and singularity, which has dramatically changed with the arrival of the first LLM in the last few years.
“The current studies of the AI researchers predict AGI around 2040,” the report said. “However, just a few years before the rapid progress in large languages models (LLMS), scientists predict it around 2060. Entrepreneurs are even more bite, predicting it around ~ 2030.”
Macro -analysis also offers several idea why many experts think AGI is inevitable. First, the idea is that, unlike human intelligence, it seems that machine intelligence has no restrictions – at least, it has not been found so far. As the computing power doubles every 18 months (a concept known in the circles of computer engineering as a Moore law), LLMS must quickly reach the threshold of calculations per second, which is equal with human intelligence. The report also states that if the calculations have ever hit an engineering wall, quantum calculations could eventually help to take the weak.
“Most experts believe that Moore’s law is ending this decade,” the report said. “The unique nature of quantum calculations can be used for effective training of neural networks, currently the most popular AI architecture in commercial applications. AI algorithms operating on stable quantum computers have a chance to unlock singularity. “
However, not everyone thinks Aggie is dead security. Some experts claim that human intelligence is more versatile than what describes the current definition of AGI. For example, some EI experts think about the human mind With respect to eight intelligentsiaOf which “logical mathematical” is only one (with it, there is, for example, interpersonal, intrarality and existential intelligence). Deep training pioneer Jan Lecun believes that AGI should be rebranded for “advanced machine intelligence” and claims that the human intelligence officer is too specialized to be reproduced. The report also suggests that although AI is an important tool for creating new discoveries, it cannot make these discoveries on its own.
“More intelligence can lead to better designed and managed experiments, which allows more to find an experiment,” the report said. “Even the best machine that analyzes existing data may not be able to find a cure for cancer.”
Although the individual forecasts for AGI of experts and scientists differ in the amount of about half a century, the message is clear: human society will inevitably face incredible change as a result of these algorithms.
Will these changes be good or bad? Well, it’s up to us.
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