Listen and subscribe to open the offer Apple Podcasts., Spotify., Amazon Music., YouTube Or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
Investors would be wise to be alert for negative market surprises over the next few months, given the renewed optimism for shares against the background of trade in US-Chinese trade.
They just got one in the form of the United States that lose their credit rating Sterling Triple. Moody has lowered the US government at the end of Friday, accusing large fiscal deficits and increasing interest costs. Shares across the Board on Monday were sold sharply as the 10-year profitability of finance (^TNX) has grown above the key level of 4.5%.
Another market surprise that lies in the weeds is the third quarter profit season, which usually begins in mid -October. The pluses believe that the cumulative effect of tariffs will be the worst in the third quarter, much to the horror of ascending analysts who continue to expect corporate bumper profits.
“I think there is a lag between tariff messages and when they actually hit the profits,” said TRIVARIATE Research founder Adam Parker in the initial Podite for Yahoo Finance offer (see the video above or listen below). “So I suspect it is more likely the number of the third quarter, which will soften a little.”
Parker Held the Chief US Equity Strategist Role at Sanford Bernstein and Morgan Stanley Beforeing Trivariate Research in 2021. He Correctly Predict the Sell-Off in “Magnific” (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (Meta), Alphabet (Goog) – this year, putting a bear note in early February before the sliding in the carefully watched group.
Parker added to the revenue that “you can get a little wave where not all of them miss at the same time. But at the moment I think Q2 numbers are probably fine, but the third and fourth quarter are actually embedded in some sectors, higher than normal [earnings]S “
Read more: How to protect your money during economic turmoil, stock market instability
The second -quarter revenue season, which soon ends, sleeps investors into a false sense of security about the impact of the profit of the tariffs. Initially, the tariffs will not be felt by the companies until the current quarter and then they will feel more in the third quarter if they remain at the current levels.
About 78% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies report a surprise of positive action (EPS) for the first quarter, over five -year average, according to Facet data. The S&P 500 companies exceed EPS estimates of the first quarter results by approximately 8.5% in the set, relatively in accordance with the five -year average.
