The noted technology investor Katie Wood has just released a new long-term Bitcoin forecast.
In the new April report by Ark, he describes in detail a series of catalysts, which she believes could lead Bitcoin to $ 2.4 million by 2030.
This implies a return of 2.101% from here, but I’m not so sure the forecast is realistic.
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Cathie Wood is the CEO of Ark Investment Management, which manages several stock funds (ETFS) focused on destructive technology. Cryptocurrencies are an area of ARK’s focus and this was one of the first companies to be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Bitcoin(Crypto: BTC) Stock Trading Fund (ETF) last year.
Bitcoin is the biggest cryptocurrency in the world at market value, and Arc is extremely bulls for its future. In 2024, the company issued a forecast that suggests that cryptocurrency could reach $ 1.5 million by 2030, suggesting a potential growth of $ 1.276% of its current $ 109,000 price to the current text.
But last month, ARC has released a new report with a new set of forecasts and reworked its Bull case to $ 2.4 million by a coin by 2030, which means it can rise by 2.101% instead. But how realistic is this goal?
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If you invested $ 1,000 in Bitcoin 10 years ago, today it will cost $ 451,600. The same investment in S&P 500 The index would grow to only $ 2730 over the same period. It now has a market capitalization of $ 2.18 trillion, so if it was a company, it would be the fourth largest in the world.
Digital coin has a unique set of qualities that distinguish it from most other assets studied and even most other cryptocurrencies. It is completely decentralized so that it cannot be controlled by any person, company or government.
In addition, it is scarce thanks to a fixed delivery of 21 million coins – 19.8 million of which are in circulation (the rest will be slowly extracted by about 2140). Finally, it is built on a secure recording system called Blockchain, where transactions are publicly verifiable.
With what has been said, Bitcoin produces no income or profits, nor is it very useful as a currency because of its exceptional instability, so it is still a highly speculative asset. This is more like a digital version of gold than of shares or US dollar, so it depends on the desire of other investors to constantly pay a higher price.
In the new April report of ARK, he emphasized six catalysts to maintain the price of the price of $ 2.4 million. But he cited three of them as the main catalysts, which means that they will have a much more impact on the price between now and 2030:
Institutional investment: ETFS enable financial advisers and institutional investors to own Bitcoin in a safe and regulated manner. Previously, they had to use digital crypto portfolios that could be susceptible to hacks and non -refundable losses. Ark says institutional investors will have about $ 200 trillion assets under 2030 and predicts 6.5% of this figure to embark on Bitcoin thanks to ETF.
Digital gold: As I mentioned earlier, crypto is often considered a digital version of gold, except that it is easier to transfer property, which could make it more attractive in the modern economy. As a result, Ark believes that 60% of the money currently allocated to gold can be moved to Bitcoin by 2030.
Currency of the emerging market: Developing countries tend to have variable currencies, which dramatically affects the purchasing power of their citizens. Ark believes that digital coin can be the most fascinating advantage to help these nations to hedge against inflation and other economic winds.
According to ARK modeling, these three catalysts will contribute 92.5% of the price at the company’s price for $ 2.4 million. If this turns out to be accurate, investors who buy cryptocurrency today will win 2.101% return by 2030.
If we take the target of ARK of $ 2.4 million and multiply it by the total supply of Bitcoin of $ 21 million, we receive a market capitalization of $ 50.4 trillion. In other words, cryptocurrency would be 15 times more price than the biggest company in the world, Microsoftwhich today has a $ 3.4 trillion market cap. It would also cost more than all the annual production of the US economy, which was $ 29.7 trillion last year.
To me, this does not sound realistic to an asset without revenue, no profit and without a proven case. Plus, Bitcoin ETF has attracted only about $ 134 billion in tributary since SEC began to approve of them last January, and Arc’s forecast relies on this figure, reaching a stunning $ 13 trillion by 2030 (or $ 2.6 trillion a year for the next five years). Based on the evidence so far, this does not seem likely.
Even if investors consider the digital token a viable alternative to gold, people have used the precious metal for thousands For years and the value of all above ground reserves has been only $ 22.5 trillion today. If the Crypto market cap increases to match the Gold market cap, this will become a price of a coin of $ 1.07 million, which is still quite small than ARK’s target.
In summary, I think forecasting an ARK price of $ 2.4 million for Bitcoin is a little ambitious. Cryptocurrency may continue to move higher than here, but investors may probably attach their expectations, as the best return can be in the rearview mirror.
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Anthony di Pizio has no position in any of the mentioned shares. Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin and Microsoft. Motley Fool recommends the following options: Long January 2026. $ 395 Microsoft calls and short January 2026 $ 405 Microsoft calls. Motley Fool has a policy of disclosure.
1 Unstable cryptocurrency to buy before bending by 2.101%, according to Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest originally published by Motley Fool
